With the 2012 presidential election right around the corner, we examine the state’s pivotal role and how it could change the course of the vote.
While Pennsylvania may not necessarily be considered a swing or battleground state, its 20 electoral votes are important to both candidates come Election Day on Nov. 6.
A swing state is one in which the outcome is perhaps too close to call, and could “swing” either way, for either candidate. Likewise, a battleground state is one that will be highly contested right down to the wire.
Several other key states, such as Va, Ohio, N.C, and Fla, could provide President Barack Obama or presidential hopeful Mitt Romney with a much-needed boost toward the required 270 electoral votes necessary for victory.
Wis., Iowa, N.H, Colo., and Nev. also appear too close to call in current polls, and will likely play a pivotal role in the outcome as well.
William Pezza, a political science professor at Bucks, points to previous elections when analyzing Pennsylvania’s upcoming role in the 2012 election. “Historically, Pennsylvania has been slightly blue for some time.”
In fact, Democrats have carried Pa. in the last five presidential elections. George H.W. Bush was the last Republican to win the state, in 1988.
‘Yet Pennsylvania shows an odd ability to “swing” either way when it comes to mayoral, gubernatorial, or senatorial elections. Pezza says, “Most recently, there seems to be more of a tendency for a split in the state elections.”
Currently, the state has one Democratic and one Republican senator.
When asked for whom he intended to vote, Pezza declined to comment, and said, “I need to be impartial and unbiased, especially for an important role he has yet to play.”
As the upcoming moderator for the 8th congressional district debate between Republican Mike Fitzpatrick and Democrat Kathy Boockvar, Pezza will have a front row seat to the “battleground” quality of the local election process.
Another Bucks political science professor, Anthony Wolf, points more to recent polls to determine Pa.’s role in the national election. “Over the past four to five weeks, Pennsylvania has been solidly blue, with President Obama holding a lead of up to 10 points.”
Due to Obama’s poor showing at the first presidential debate, Professor Wolf concedes, “That gap may have closed somewhat since the debate,” but opines, “Obama should carry the state, and likely won’t have to spend too much time here campaigning to do so.”
Chances are even more unlikely that Mitt Romney spends much time or money on a state that appears, at this time, to be beyond his reach.
But here, Wolf also warns, “More likely would be Republican super PACs (political action committees) spending significant amounts of money to ensure wins in the local state elections.”
Were this to occur, victorious Republican state representatives and members of Congress could attempt to thwart would-be Democratic policies suggested by Obama, should he be re-elected.
When interviewed, several Bucks students revealed their moderate to high interest in the upcoming election, and in exercising their ability to vote for the very first time.
Penny Pappas, 19, of Warrington, said of her political affiliation, “I am either independent or leaning towards the Democrats.” She listed some of her concerns as “social issues, political corruption, and foreign policy.”
Todd Benziger, 19, of Yardley, points to the recent debate as a lynchpin to his decision to support Obama. “I actually felt that Mitt Romney’s demeanor was too brash, and while Obama wasn’t too aggressive, he appears more level-headed.”
Benziger also said, “Financial aid for school, and overall, education” were high on his list of concerns for the upcoming election.
Jonathan Green, 18, of Levittown, is still undecided. “I am definitely concerned about jobs and the economy.” Given his well-known business acumen, some might give Romney the edge in this category.
Supporters of Obama could just as easily point to a recent drop in the unemployment rate, in which it dropped below eight percent for the first time since Jan. 2009.
Green has quite a decision to make, saying, “I do like Obama and his [foreign policy] experience, and sometimes Romney doesn’t seem to relate to the little guy.”
While the outcome in Pa. is not yet a forgone conclusion, and both candidates will be pressing hard to secure as many electoral votes as possible, chances are that Fla., N.C. Va. and other true swing states will eclipse Pa. in most headlines as we get closer to Election Day.